EUR / USD: Fundamental review on 7-11 May 2012

Over the past week, EUR / USD has lost 170 points. Will the pair trades within the prescribed range, or make a breakthrough?

Let's talk about the most likely drivers for EUR / USD for the current week in more detail.

Promising for the latest information on the PMI, the recession in the eurozone has gone far enough. Even in Germany the rise in unemployment. Nevertheless, Mario Draghi is optimistic: according to him, in the second half of 2012 the economic situation improves. Is this true? Or we can expect another wave of the crisis?

According to statistics from the U.S., the country has increased the number of employees in the U.S. economy outside of agriculture. However, growth was lower than projected. On the other hand, in the U.S. fell to 8.1% unemployment rate and the data for the previous month were also revised for the better.

According to the results of exit polls, pre-term parliamentary elections in Greece, leading center-right party. The ruling party seems to lose majority, which may lead to revision of the Government of the conditions of the loan.

Presidential elections in France, Francois Hollande ended in victory, Nicolas Sarkozy is determined by 4%. Most likely, the euro will play news of the victory of the candidate of the Socialist Party drop in prices in the short term.

Meanwhile, the regional election in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany) resulted in the defeat of the party, Angela Merkel. Most likely, the election results will not pass unnoticed. Sometimes Angela Merkel changing their views, adapting them to the beliefs of opponents in an attempt to win votes. This can happen now: Merkel can change the way politics of austerity measures in Europe.

Thus, we consider some of the planned publication this week in more detail.

Monday, May 7, 8.30 GMT. At this time, the publication will be an indicator of investor confidence from Sentix. The survey involved nearly 2,800 analysts and investors. Its results allow us to assess the prospects for the development of financial markets over the next six months. Economists predict a drop in this indicator by 0.3 points m / m to -15 points, which indicates an increase of pessimistic sentiment in the euro area.

At 10.00 GMT will be published on the new industrial orders in Germany for the past month. Analysts predict the growth of this indicator is 0.5%, the previous figure was 0.3%.

Tuesday, May 8, 10.00 GMT. At this time, is expected to publish statistics on the volume of industrial production in Germany. Last month in this area have been falling by 1.3% m / m However, this time, according to analysts, this indicator is expected to grow by 0.8% m / m It should be noted, however, that the index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector of Germany shows the weakness of the economy.

Wednesday, May 9, 6.00 GMT. At this time, is expected to publish statistics on the balance of foreign trade of Germany. According to analysts, the level of trade surplus will amount to 13.4 billion euros the previous figure - 13.6 billion

At 6.45 GMT is expected to publish statistics on the balance of foreign trade of France. Here the situation is a little bit the opposite: the trade deficit issue was discussed at a rather sharp debate between Sarkozy and Hollande. This time it is expected that this figure will drop from 6.4 billion to 5.9 billion euros.

Thursday, May 10. At 6.45 GMT the information will become available for industrial production in France. If in the last month this figure showed an increase of 0.3%, then this time is expected corresponding decrease.

At 8.00 GMT the monthly newsletter will be published by the ECB. As a rule, the ECB published a report just a week after the decision on monetary policy. It contains statistics on which the Committee relies in making decisions, and presents a detailed analysis of the current situation in the financial sector and its prospects. It is likely that the publication will be clear on what basis the ECB expects the improved economic situation in the 2nd half of 2012 is often way out of this report has some influence on the quote the euro.

Friday, May 11. At 6.00 GMT the final published statistics on the level of consumer prices in Germany. According to preliminary data, inflation declined slightly and is now projected a slight increase - 0.1%.

That's all for this week, a successful auction!